OPTIMAL BATHYMETRY OF TYRRHENIAN SEA BY STOCHASTIC INTERPOLATORS1

ABSTRACT: The analysis of the sea depth in the vicinity of a thermal power plant is important in view of the heat dispersion and transport of the cooling water discharged from the energy production processes. The bathymetry of the Tyrrhenian Sea in the area facing the thermoelectric plant being built at Montalto di Castro, Italy, is reconstructed with the aid of the kriging technique. The large number of measurements (2038) precludes the use of a global interpolation model. At the same time, the steepness of the variogram suggests that the stochastic process is likely non-stationary. The latter problem is managed by detrending the observed records with a fourth-order polynomial drift determined with the least squares method. The global approach is replaced with local models with an influence radius of 70 m and a minimal number of interpolation records equal to 10. The detrended residuals appear to be second-order stationary having an isotropic vaniogram that is fitted equally well by a linear or a spherical function. The average size of the local interpolation models is 28, which ensures a high cemputational efficiency. The bathymetry of the sea area of interest is then reconstructed over a regular grid with a total of 3570 nodes. The estimation standard deviation maps show that the accuracy of the prediction is even greater than the prescribed tolerance (= 0.2 m) and indicate that future data collection campaigns require a less dense and, therefore, less expensive recording network. The redundant measurement profiles are identified. Their elimination still allows for bathymetry estimates affected by interpolation errors that fall within the project specifications.     

加油站定量和定性系统安全评价

论述加油站系统单元划分方法,研究加油站工艺过程,认为事故发生的原因一方面是由于系统各单元危险源的存在和控制措施的不完善,另一方面是由于工艺过程系统节点参数(流量、压力、温度等)发生有效偏差和偏差的传递造成的。针对上述两方面原因,首先从系统安全的角度,将加油站系统划分为5部分,并应用安全检查表方法对各子系统进行了定性安全评价;然后将工艺过程划分为6个节点,应用模糊危险与可操作性研究Fuzzy-HAZOP方法,对各个节点发生有效偏差的原因进行了定量的系统安全分析,并得到半定量化结果;最终从定性和定量两个方面完成了加油站系统安全评价。     

HTPB药柱老化对SRM内弹道性能的影响及偏差分析

为了定性和定量的描述药柱燃面、密度、燃速等因素对固体火箭发动机（SRM）内弹道性能的影响,在HTPB复合固体推进剂老化研究和SRM内弹道性能预估研究的基础上,分析了HTPB推进剂因贮存老化引起的SRM内弹道性能偏差,建立了性能偏差计算模型。结果表明,老化引起的药柱燃面、密度、燃速变化以及侵蚀燃烧引起的喷喉烧蚀是SRM贮存过程中影响内弹道性能偏差的直接因素,老化引起它们微小的波动都会引起发动机内弹道性能较大的偏离。在发动机寿命预估和进行可靠性分析时必须考虑老化对内弹道性能的影响。     

HAZOP技术在溴化丁基橡胶装置的应用

介绍了危险与可操作性分析(HA-ZOP)的程序以及在溴化丁基橡胶装置的应用,根据分析结果提出相应的安全措施。     

HAZOP分析技术在聚丙烯装置的应用

介绍HAZOP分析方法在聚丙烯装置的应用,根据分析结果,有效地识别聚丙烯装置运行过程中存在的风险,并提出了降低风险的措施和建议。     

Emission inventory on company level: lessons from Russia

Developing a transparent,accurate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissionsinventory is the first step toward buildingan effective GHG management system. Todate, GHG inventories have been conductedprimarily at national levels. Theinternationally accepted inventorymethodology developed by theIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC) is oriented to countrywideinventories. The electricity company RAOUESR is the largest single corporateemitter of GHG in the Russian Federation. The company is responsible for about 1/3 ofRussia's CO₂ emissions; RAO's fossil fuelemissions are comparable to the fossil fuelemissions of the United Kingdom. The GHGinventory prepared by RAO is the first suchcorporate emissions inventory undertaken ina non-OECD country. In this article wepresent a detailed independent examinationof the methodology RAO applied for theinventory. We identify the most importantsources of uncertainty and we estimate theuncertainty. The main conclusion of theindependent review is that the methodologyutilized by RAO and the informationsupporting the methodology are reliable andpresent a reasonably accurate company-widepicture of RAO's CO₂ emissions. The shareof other greenhouse gases is negligiblysmall and we did not focus on this fractionof RAO's GHG emissions. As a next step, RAOmay wish to conduct more precisefacility-by-facility inventories in orderto create a robust GHG emission managementsystem.     

可持续发展评价指标(体系)及其确定方法的探讨

通过对目前已有的可持续发展指标体系的研究,指出现有指标体系忽略了可持续性内涵、环境的限制作用、社会公平性及经济增长的影响作用等主要内容．提出采用离差法来计算可持续发展评价指标．建议采用限制型指标、发展型指标、协调型指标来评价系统的可持续性;标准值或参考值采用反映系统不可持续性状态的底线值以及反映整个人类状况的全球、区域或国家现时平均值．同时还提出了不可持续性标准值、不可持续状态、远离不可持续状态、迈进可持续发展过程等概念．强调单项指标的重要性,指出单项指标离差度对系统可持续性的指示作用．     

用EDTA代替CDTA测定SO_2的探索

通过实验验证了盐酸副玫瑰苯胺分光光度法测定大气中SO2的标准方法中,用EDTA代替CDTA去掩蔽金属离子的干扰是可行的,即方便,又经济。     

中俄跨界水体水质联合监测数据可比性研究

中俄跨界水体水质联合监测已经连续开展了11 a,积累了大量的监测数据。笔者针对双方实际监测数据,选用相关性分析和t检验等统计学方法,分析了中俄双方联合监测数据可比性。研究结果表明:p H、溶解氧、高锰酸盐指数和化学需氧量的相对偏差统计容许限基本满足中国标准建议值;氨氮和铁2个指标高于中国标准建议值;锰的数据差异最大。建议中俄双方针对溶解氧使用便携式溶解氧仪进行原位监测;重点对氨氮、铁和锰开展技术交流,设计相关实验,从样品采集、保存、运输、前处理和实验室分析等各环节查找双方差异。     

Estimating irrigation water demand in the Moroccan Drâa Valley using contingent valuation

Irrigation water management is crucial for agricultural production and livelihood security in Morocco as in many other parts of the world. For the implementation of an effective water management, knowledge about farmers' demand for irrigation water is crucial to assess reactions to water pricing policy, to establish a cost-benefit analysis of water supply investments or to determine the optimal water allocation between different users. Previously used econometric methods providing this information often have prohibitive data requirements. In this paper, the Contingent Valuation Method (CVM) is adjusted to derive a demand function for irrigation water along farmers' willingness to pay for one additional unit of surface water or groundwater. An application in the Middle Draa Valley in Morocco shows that the method provides reasonable results in an environment with limited data availability. For analysing the censored survey data, the Least Absolute Deviation estimator was found to be a more suitable alternative to the Tobit model as errors are heteroscedastic and non-normally distributed. The adjusted CVM to derive demand functions is especially attractive for water scarce countries under limited data availability.